Research

Questions we keep returning to

Numina Labs is a research-to-product studio. This is the research half: the threads currently running, what they have found, and the questions and reading the products are built on. Everything here is open — code, data, and the parts that did not work.

Active threads

Work in progress

01
Machine learning × string theory

Villages in the string landscape

Warm-starting Calabi–Yau metric networks across a family of shapes
Research note v0.1 · September 2026 · open source

String theory needs the Ricci-flat metric on a Calabi–Yau manifold, and there is no closed form for it. Neural networks can approximate one metric for one shape — but the landscape holds a vast number of shapes. This note asks whether a network trained on a neighbourhood of similar shapes (a "village") transfers to shapes it has never seen.

What we found so far
  • Inside a village, one epoch of fine-tuning from the village specialist matches what training from scratch reaches after roughly 185 epochs — and at convergence the warm-started network is still 1.4× more accurate. Scratch does not catch up.
  • The village edge is a slope, not a cliff: accuracy degrades smoothly with distance, and warm-start beats an equal-budget scratch run at every radius tested.
  • One network for the whole space does not work at this scale. A router plus a set of specialists is the working generalist — so covering the landscape is a tiling problem, not a modelling problem.
Next

Replicate on a second family (a quintic or a CICY), locate the village boundary, then push downstream to Yukawa couplings on a three-generation quotient — where the metric’s accuracy actually cashes out.

02
Behavioural science × reinforcement learning

Animo

Just-in-time adaptive interventions for screentime and wellbeing
Bachelor thesis · University of Amsterdam · in development

Most wellbeing apps nudge on a schedule. Animo asks a harder question: when does a nudge actually help, and when is it just noise? It frames the intervention as a cost-penalised contextual bandit — a system that learns, per person and per moment, whether to say something at all.

What we found so far
  • Built as a just-in-time adaptive intervention (JITAI): the decision is not what to say but whether this is the moment to say it.
  • Every interruption carries a cost. The model is penalised for nudging, so it has to earn each one with a measurable, proximal benefit inside the app rather than a distant promise about screentime.
  • Android is the research platform — iOS keeps Screen Time data away from third-party apps — and ethics review comes before any data collection.
Next

Finish the intervention design, clear the ethics board, and run a small in-the-wild study. Animo is treated as research first; whether it becomes a product is a question for after the data.

Themes

Four questions, every product

Each product is measured against the same four questions. The open questions underneath are the ones we have not answered yet.

01

Augmentation over automation

How do tools extend human judgment instead of replacing it? The oldest question in computing, and still the one that matters most.

Open: Where does augmentation quietly slide into dependence? When is removing a decision a gift, and when is it a theft of agency?

02

Choice under constraint

People decide badly when options overwhelm. Good design narrows the field without removing agency — the heart of MESA: three questions, three dishes.

Open: What is the right number of options for a high-trust, low-stakes decision? How do you compress a 60-item menu to three picks a diner trusts?

In practice: MESAi
03

Meaning & momentum

What moves a person from intention to first step? The psychology of motivation behind PASO and the thesis behind Animo.

Open: Does an AI roadmap increase follow-through, or just the feeling of progress? How do you design for momentum without manufacturing anxiety?

In practice: PASO
04

Responsible systems

Fairness, transparency, and the human cost of automated decisions — kept in the loop, not bolted on at the end. The MESAi allergen audit trail is a small, concrete version of this.

Open: When is a regulated domain worth the overhead, and when does it kill a good idea at the current stage?

Dossier

Selected reading

A living list, organised by theme — added to as the work evolves, pruned when something stops earning its place.

Augmentation over automation
1960Man-Computer SymbiosisJ.C.R. Licklider
1962Augmenting Human IntellectDouglas Engelbart
2022Human-Centered AIBen Shneiderman
Choice under constraint
1979Prospect TheoryKahneman & Tversky
2000When Choice is DemotivatingIyengar & Lepper
2004The Paradox of ChoiceBarry Schwartz
2008NudgeThaler & Sunstein
Meaning & momentum
1946Man's Search for MeaningViktor Frankl
1990A Theory of Goal Setting & Task PerformanceLocke & Latham
1999Implementation IntentionsPeter Gollwitzer
2000Self-Determination TheoryDeci & Ryan
2011Thinking, Fast and SlowDaniel Kahneman
Responsible systems
2016Weapons of Math DestructionCathy O'Neil
2019Race After TechnologyRuha Benjamin
2021On the Dangers of Stochastic ParrotsBender, Gebru, et al.
Geometry & learning
2020On Warm-Starting Neural Network TrainingAsh & Adams
2021Learning Size and Shape of Calabi-Yau SpacesLarfors, Lukas, Ruehle & Schneider (cymetric)

Working on something adjacent?

Supervisors, collaborators, and anyone who has replicated, broken, or improved on a result above — the door is open. Corrections are especially welcome.

justus@numinalabs.app